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Presentation explains the probablistic approach to risk based cost and schedule estimates used by Washington State Department of Transportation to estimate the range of costs in large projects. Briefly discusses connection of risk based estimating to VE.
Dr. Sangrey explains the principles of risk based cost and schedule assessments for transportation projects and the linkages to VE. Dr. Sangrey was involved in developing the risk based estimating techniques for Washington State Department of Transportation. The process is usually used on large dollar projects.
Presentation outlines principles of risk based estimating for infrastructure projects and how risk based estimating supports decision making. Author integrates solid financial principles with sound engineering decision making. Cost estimating, cost modeling, Monte carlo simulation clearly explained. Useful examples for risk registers.
Discusses approaches to combining risk with VE, highlights the similarities of the processes, shows how window of opportunity for risk analysis to impact the VE study declines during the workshop. Provides practical examples based on experience in a number of sectors of how risk based estimating was combined with VE in 40 hour workshops.
Case study outlines use of Value Analysis and Risk Based Estimating on a road rail grade separation in Windsor Ontario. Presentation shows how a VE study that involved 3 levels of government on a difficult project was planned and facilitated. Project won a Value Engineering award from the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.
This presentation, through reference to a number of mega projects now completed and the new processes that have emerged from these, demonstrates how risk identification and analysis has helped project sponsors make more informed decisions. The presentation will address how we can better inform politicians in the very early days of a project to avoid embarrassing questions and failed election promises when delivery is delayed. The presentation will also explain how we can make better estimates of schedule and cost, highlights lessons learned and what should be avoided in the future. Best emerging practices for granting agencies will be touched on from the authors experience with the Federal Transit Administration in the United States.
Programme: Making Understandable Infrastructure Commitments Through Risk Based Estimates
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